CFTC.GOV CoT data from December 16 reveales that while WTI oil went from $68 to $55 the big banks and oil companies were among the sellers. During the two week period from Dec. 2 to Dec. 16 they increased their already massive short position by ~40,000 contracts to  a ~380,000 contract short position. A more than 10% increase in two weeks…

Obviously they believe the price will continue to plunge. A lot…

Why do they believe that? Is a relevant question I suppose.

Well, there are a myriad of explanations in both fringe and mainstream media. Some believe it’s a demand problem, and others that it’s a supply problem. Some resort to different types of geopolitical conspiracy theories, either punishment of Putin or US shale/other high cost low grade oil.

The only fact is of course that the Saudis will aim towards and succeed to increase market share since their oil is by far the cheapest. They will still make money at a $10 oilprice. No one else will. It’s only a logical business strategy.

But. There is one graph that shows more than anything what is happening. The complete decoupling of stocks and oil. In the last debt crisis of 08/09 both oil and stocks plunged. Now the “hockey stick” of R2k vs. oil is almost unbelievable… (+84% since the Lugano Report). And… Look at the timing. Something very real did happen around Oct. 8. What could that be except for the Lugano Report? I’m still looking for a plausible alternative explanations with THAT kind of timing… As an example the Saudi supply position of continued production has been on since June.

Russell 2000 index relative Oil price (IWM/USO)

As I said before. Energy as a scarce and expensive commodity is history. This fact will accelarate growth in all areas except for in the energy commodities per se. Actually we will in the future consume much more energy, so even most energy companies will benefit, especially Big Oil that have been prepared for this change since several years.

Look at the chart below to see what I mean. XLE (Energy companies) is up 50% compared to oil since the Lugano Report. It’s not +84% as the R2k as a whole, but nevertheless.

This future increase in energy consumption manifests itself in that the utility companies are among top performing indexes (XLU) gaining +87% compared to oil since the Lugano report.

The losers will of course be the owners of the large oil fields (which is as you know by now not BigOil anymore), but mostly nations and oligarchs/kings/rulers of diverse violent origins around the globe. This is clearly noted in the performance of currencies of nations like Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela, etc. However the people of these nations will benefit in the long run since most necessities of life will become cheaper everywhere.

COP=2.58 by boiling water with an E-Cat. My prediction is that from now on we will very quickly see multiple replications worldwide. Here is a translation of the replication report (Lugano-Confirmed) and you can read the full story on E-Catworld.

Living room setup!

Also, I really would like to share this excellent summary on the oil business affairs with a lot of good links by “Ian Walker” in a comment on CNBC.COM

This is a Black Swan Event!

Did none of you notice Big Oil have sold their Oil Fields since September 2011?

Let me repeat that:

Big Oil sold their oil fields.

And again for the stupid:

Big Oil sold their oil fields.

It is part of your due diligence to find out what the big players are doing.

Do a Google search for any oil company name and the phrase “Oil field” and the words divest or sell. You can see for yourself.

You will see the following evidence:

Shell has been on a massive divestment strategy on its oil field assets, from Africa to the Far East since September 2011, though as it was already tracking the Black Swan and has a department specifically tasked with watching this particular Black Swan develop, it knew before the others, it just speeded up its divestment of oil fields as the Black Swan became more visible.

http://www.thisdaylive.com/art…

http://www.hydrocarbons-techno…

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9754…

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fin…

They accelerated the sales of their oil fields as a certain report from the town of Lugano in Switzerland started doing the rounds in the scientific circles in June July of 2014 (more later 😉 )

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/shell…

Other Fossil Fuel companies on a divestment strategy since September 2011 include BP who sold their stakes in fields in the North Sea, Russia, the Arctic and the Gulf to name but a few, and not even batting an eyelid about being refused license to buy future assets in the Gulf.

http://www.bp.com/en/global/co…

http://www.ogj.com/articles/20…

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/busi…

http://www.bp.com/genericartic…

http://www.bp.com/genericartic…

http://indrus.in/articles/2012…

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ma…

Connoco

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/…

http://www.bidnessetc.com/2566…

http://online.wsj.com/articles…

http://www.fool.com/investing/…

ExxonMobil

http://www.thestar.com.my/busi…

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2…

http://www.newsystocks.com/New…

http://www.reuters.com/article…

Even the pipeline parts and refinery companies joined the rush to divest the fossil fuel business.

http://dcnonl.com/nw/32627/cb

http://online.wsj.com/article/…

Some are trying to cover their strategy and the risk by divesting half of the asset others are just cashing in their chips.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/…

http://www.linkedin.com/groups…

http://in.reuters.com/article/…

I could fill this page with how many oil fields Big Oil has dropped since September 2011.

Big Oil is in the Oil Business they still need oil for their oil refineries and business so what have they been doing to ensure supply?

They have been taking out (1)options to lease on (2)US fraking fields and Canadian tar sands.

Note that (1)”options to lease” They are renting. They have stopped owning and rent instead. You rent/lease an asset rather than buy it when you know the asset is about to take a big hit. That way those who own the asset bare the cost.

And that second part the assets they are leasing are based in the (2)”US fraking fields and Canadian tar sands” you move to a more expensive supplier and out of a cheaper third world asset when you know the asset is about to experience social unrest and disruption. The kind of disruption that comes with say a massive drop in the value of an asset they were relying on.

If big oil thinks oil has no future, why do you think it has?

So what happened in 2011?

A little known man called Andrea Rossi demonstrated in front of an audience, including representatives from Big Oil, such Shell, a working LENR, that was then tested and bought up by a 2 Billion Dollar US investment corporation.

That version was just the equivalent of the Wright Flyer 1, it would take a while for the technology to reach market. Few in the mass media or the major scientists believed the Wright brothers had a heavier than air flying machine until years after the first successful flight at Kitty Hawk.

http://books.google.co.uk/book…

Who is in the Market?

Rossi is not the only person working on LENR there are a dozen companies now involved in the race to market including the likes of Toyota, Mitsubishi and St Microelectronics as well as companies based at research facilities at Stanford, Missouri University and MIT, ENEA in Italy and LENR research taking place in the US Navy NASA and Boeing to name but a few a conference on LENR will take place at Oxford University next month but the company that bought Andrea Rossi’s IP; Cherokee Investment Corp’s Industrial Heat are by far and away the market leaders. With a CE certificated industrial product already working at an undisclosed customer’s site and negotiations with the Chinese Government for a mass production facility. And already into their third or fourth iteration of the reactor design.

Then in early October scientists working for Elforsk (The Swedish national energy research facility) and the Swedish Royal Academy of Science, yes the one that chooses people for the Nobel prizes, verified the reactor worked and produced energy levels of a nuclear level. The Report was published on the Elforsks own site and the University of Bologna and is available via Google Scholar among

others:

http://amsacta.unibo.it/4084/1…

Now the Lugano report has been independently replicated and verified by Russian physicist Alexander G. Parkhomov of the People’s Friendship University in Moscow, BRICS ranking 82nd in the world.

https://docviewer.yandex.com/?…

FOLLOW THE MONEY!

So what did Big Oil do with all that money they got from selling off their Oil Fields? You can see the amounts involved in the links above.

http://oilprice.com/Finance/in…

Essentially the oil companies gave the money to the merchant banks, with a nod and a wink and maybe who knows, a soon to be shredded report, who took the money from the sale of the oil fields and put it into a massive short on the value of oil.

Did no one notice that oil stabilized around 100 to 110 and despite conflicts, economic downturns and strife did not move from that position? Did that not give you all a clue a big player(s) were taking a huge position?

Let me make this clear; over a year ago they took a massive bet against oil. It is there in the commitment of traders report.

They stopped rolling over the Shorts in October, though some started in June when the Lugano report started doing the rounds in the scientific community. That is what the glut is, hundreds of oil tankers full with oil nobody wants, over bought by a market that believed the hype, that oil is forever, it can only go up! So drill baby drill! Where have we heard that before? It is Bubble talk.

This is the moment on the oil futures market when Sweden’s Elforsk announced that the E-Cat had been verified, see for your self the effect on the market:

http://www.sifferkoll.se/siffe…

This is the track on the Oil Market when Blackrock/Barclays downloaded the leaked report:

http://www.sifferkoll.se/siffe…

And they all made a killing in the tens of billions of dollars range on the fools left holding the bag in oil.

This market will not touch bottom until 90 Days after the publication of the Lugano report when all the 90 day shorts have all run through.

Bill Gates did his due diligence in early November, seeing the Oil market crash for what it was a Black Swan. When the richest man in the world starts losing money he wants to know why. He got an emergency briefing from ENEA in Frascati; La Stampa broke the story:

http://www.lastampa.it/2014/11…

If you do not understand Italian, here is the University Verona explaining why Bill Gates was there.

http://www.univrmagazine.it/si…

It now appears Bill Gates was following LENR for years.
http://hardware.slashdot.org/s…

At that moment Bill Gates realised it was a bubble in the oil futures market; based on how many people didn’t do their due diligence, to find out what the big players were doing or even the basics like checking the Commitment of Traders reports regularly.

A bubble, that LENR has now popped.

BIg Oil are not going to lose out on this, though their shareholders might. They have their money in the merchant banks, which took out the short. I am sure there was a beneficial arrangement, question is, who for?

Big Oil’s Shareholders?

Or those who invested in the banking arm of Big Oil?

We all know how those bonuses work.

This then is:

THE END OF THE FOSSIL FUEL AGE.

Saudi Arabia is placing itself, strategically, for decades of managed decline in the Oil industry, where a true market will once again assert itself. So Saudi Arabia knows it has to drop prices to the minimum and take over a maximum share of the Oil market both to slow the uptake of LENR and to maximise its profits in a declining market.

Saudi Arabia realizes OPEC is dead so it wants to undercut and kill off as many of its competitors as it can now; by locking in customers on one year contracts that substantially undercut competitors. The market for oil is now red in tooth and claw, it is all now about managing the decline, while the crows pick the bones of the Fossil Fuel Dinosaur.

Oil will still have a market as a precursor chemical for things such as plastics and as a lubricant but essentially oil will be about as valuable as hay within 30 years.

On the matter of those left holding the bag in oil field ownership:

Bankruptcies and fire sales of fields will be snapped up by the oil companies who put their money from selling their oil fields in the bank and enabled the merchant banks to short oil. They still have their money those who are bankrupted will need to be “Rescued”

Those fields will then be run into the ground. Up until now an oil well was pumped carefully to maximise its long term output. Post LENR it will all be about market share and the basic Walmart strategy of “Stack it high sell it cheap!” If there is only 30 years of Oil as fuel probably Saudi Arabia and few other easy access wells will serve the world for that long. The higher the price the faster LENR will be taken up, it is simple supply and demand.

A prediction: 30 Dollar Oil within a year and 10 Dollar Oil long term.

On the matter of 10 Dollar long term I make these assumptions:

1) Post LENR taking up all the energy market, by about 2045, though it could be as short as 2020, Fossil Fuels will be dead other than, steam locomotives and their equivalent of a few fossil fuel vintage cars, read museum example pieces of anything with petrol/diesel engine.

2) Taking into account that oil is used for lubricants and as a precursor chemical for the chemical industries such as plastics, that market will probably still exist but it will be in an LENR enabled age where competitors will be able to use other sources for such precursor chemicals and lubricants, but also where the cost of oil extraction and refining will also be decreased by LENR enabled pumping and refining.

Kind Regards walker

In this Zerohedge post Goldman Sachs explains exactly what I’ve been talking about for some time now. They call it a “supply driven bear market”…

Yep. That is what it is when the Saudis realize that the price they get for their oil today is the best they will ever get…

Here are som interesting quotes from the report. Only one piece of information missing. Why is it happening and why is it happening now? You know the answer…

The New Oil Order: Finding a new equilibrium

… We believe the oil market is experiencing a cost re-basement which makes determining when the market is oversold extremely difficult, as the price at which rebalancing occurs is now a moving target to the downside. …

… Slowing the rebalancing and creating further downside risk is a very strong consensus view that this pull back is temporary …

… It is precisely this strong view for a rebound in prices and the behavior it creates, that not only suggests that oil prices can go lower for longer, but also that the new normal is far lower than we thought …

… Although the spot price is only at $58/bbl, the 5-year forward oil price is already lower today at $69/bbl than it was in December 2008 ($70.50/bbl) when spot WTI prices fell to $33/bbl. …

… Now it is all working in reverse as the market searches for a new equilibrium – lower oil prices, weaker commodity currencies, lower material and oil service costs and increased efficiency are all reinforcing to the downside. …

… it is in OPEC’s interest to maximize revenue through volumes, …

(by Jeffrey R. Currie, global head of Commodities
Research in the Global Investment
Research (GIR) Division at Goldman Sachs, New York)

This is what the black swan look like today. Russell 2000 vs. Oil since 2011… I believe this graph shows clearly that there was a fundamntal change in the market at the time when the Lugano Report was published. Even more so, than the oil price per se, wich compared to stock has been trading within range for several years up to more or less exactly that point. Enjoy! This is good news!

A reasonable scenario for the big banks (JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, etc) could be to unwind their massively short postion in oil entered during 2011. Having a quick look at the CFTC.GOV COT-data reveals some profit taking from the last couple of months, but the short position is still very much alive.

So if you are curious to know who’s making profits during the oil plunge and who will continue to do so on it’s way down, there is your answer.

Of course Big Oil and Big Banks know about LENR. The’ve actually known for decades (as this BP / Amoco report from 1994 shows), and they have been positioned since 2011. Now it’s turning into reality.

followed by China, Japan and Germany. Maybe not too surprising but anyway…

I made some “whois” stats on all the IP numbers that downloaded to Lugano Report and visited sifferkoll.se during November and this is what it looks like.

Here is another quote that I find interesting from an open mind perspective.

“It is very interesting. It fits like a glove with our results, both the isotopic changes and the absence of radiation. It is the first time that I see a scenario that could explain the results—it has not existed before!” Bo Höistad exclaimed when I asked him to comment on the article. (Mats Lewan)

 

It really seems that there are some interesting things happening in Uppsala. Unfortunately the fundamentalistic priesthood of Pomp & Co still resides in some of the corridors…

Here are the Gullström papers:

244393652-Low-radiation-fusion-through-bound-neutron-tunneling

247067779-Collective-Neutron-Reduction-Model-for-Neutron-Transfer-Reaction

The sad part is that they actually seem to have som influence among MSM. As Mats writes:

Their clear rejection made it virtually impossible for mainstream media to touch the subject. Furthermore Stephan Pomp repeated the allegations in personal blog posts and expressed ironic admiration for Rossi having managed to get away with his tricks for so long. In an email correspondence between him, Essén and Bo Höistad, the group’s spokesperson, the deadlock became clear. Essén and Höistad felt that they had observed experimental results that could indicate an important new phenomenon and could not understand why Pomp was so sure Rossi was bluffing; Pomp, in turn, could not understand how they could ignore the most likely explanation—that they had been cheated.

 

I actually believe that the monumental fundamental hybris expressed by Pomp is a very dangerous personality that put in the wrong place at the wrong time could be life threatening for a lot of people. He seem to believe that he knows more about both Rossi and the test than Höistad that participated… And some media believe he is worth listening to…  Not pretty.

I find this qoute from the new edition of Mats Lewans book quite interesting. It shows in very clear way how denial takes over and occupies the mind of a tax paid ignorant fool… (not the mention the obviously obscure mind of and paid oppinions of “science-blogger” Sylvie Coyaud). Enjoy the society we live in!

In May 2014, the scientific editorial team at SR had devoted a week’s air time to a critical examination of the story, with me as one of its main targets. The reportage focused on Rossi’s background and the sentences against him back at the time with Petroldragon (when I suggested that Rossi could have had enemies who might have had an agenda against him, reporter Marcus Hansson became quite upset and almost shouted at me that I was the one who seemed to have a hidden agenda). This, together with a claim in the reportage that Flesichmann’s and Pons’ results from 1989 were due to an erroneous measurement, and that no evidence of cold fusion had ever been presented, led to the conclusion that the involved scientists had allowed themselves to be fooled by Rossi who was probably a scammer, and I was pointed out as the one who uncritically had pulled them into the story. The French-Italian science blogger Sylvie Coyaud, who featured prominently in the story, described the first version of this book as a story where Rossi was the Messiah, and I was the prophet.

— Mats Lewan