Killing the Patient to Cure the Disease – follow up

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By late April I made a model showing a possible exit from corona restrictions. Following up in this a six weeks later we can see that this exit has bee executed almost exactly as the model predicted using the assumptions about immunity, social distancing and protection of risk groups from my earlier post.

From the point where we are standing right now it is expected that we have about a 70-75% infection rate (or natural immunity, which is probably more usual and does not show up in tests made). We can expect the number of daily deaths to be in single digits by early to mid July.

In the graph below I have extended the thicker dotted red line with actual deaths and as can be seen are following the somewhat choppy model pretty well.

model updated with real death statistics from FHM

This outcome is predicted by a somewhat continued strict protection of the risk groups at the same time as the restrictions are eased by about 50% (mobility restriction derease) since end of April. Since this is more or less what has happened I consider the model to work ok.

I’m not surprised by the number of daily deaths not slowing down faster (as some media, or even gov entities, seems to be) Statistically there is no other feasible way to get out of this mess. We are actually doing extremely well. At least from the point we were a month ago.

In retrospect we should of course have had fewer restrictions and thereby protected us from all secondary problems we will have to live with for years to come due to BAD political decisions, mostly in other countries though. Corona will soon be the lesser problem …

13 thoughts on “Killing the Patient to Cure the Disease – follow up”

  1. Well aren’t you living in Sweden?
    Sweden had as far as I can see, the worst Corona Virus Management in whole of Europe.
    So I don’t really understand this part:
    “In retrospect we should of course have had fewer restrictions and thereby protected us from all secondary problems we will have to live with for years to come due to BAD political decisions, mostly in other countries though.”
    What happened in swedish old peoples homes was nothing less than scandalous. Same with people over 70 and not living in old peoples homes not being treated for the disease because they would block precious ICU beds…

    • Yes, we failed to protect the elderly and already sick people in april/may. But it had nothing to do with restrictions for healthy people, and everything to do with organisational structures within the health care system. As of october as everyone can see, the situations is exactly as I predicted.

    • I actually works a lot better than all other idiotic policys. Allthough, Sweden failed to protect old and already sick people at the start during april/may.

  6. “From the point where we are standing right now it is expected that we have about a 70-75% infection rate (or natural immunity, which is probably more usual and does not show up in tests made). We can expect the number of daily deaths to be in single digits by early to mid July.”

    From the information we have today (antibody tests in different Swedish locations for example, daily death rate end of June) how do you rate the prognosis you gave?

    • At this point (october) almost exactly as predicted (deaths). Antibody tests are less predictable than expected though since there’s t-cell immunity around to a larger degree than expected.

  7. So today is the first of July.
    How does your prognosis hold up to reality Torkel?

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